We asked AI what could an HBCU/MEAC team do to avoid an NCAA Tournament no. 16 seed.
Great question — escaping the No. 16 seed line is tough, but it’s absolutely possible. Norfolk State did it in 2012 because of how the committee viewed their total résumé.
Here’s what a MEAC team can do to avoid a 16-seed:
? 1. Dominate the Regular Season and Tournament
- Win the league convincingly. A MEAC team with 25+ wins, a strong conference record (say, 15-1 or 14-2), and a tournament title stands out more than a team that just gets hot in March.
- Margin of victory and consistency matter. Blowout wins over weaker opponents are still noted by the NCAA’s NET metric.
? 2. Win Multiple Non-Conference Games
- Beat other mid-majors or low-majors on the road or at neutral sites. For example:
- Wins over America East, Big South, OVC, MAAC, or Southland teams help a lot.
- Avoid stacking the schedule with “buy games” against top 25 teams where blowouts are expected.
- A 3–5 or 4–6 non-conference record (instead of 1–9 or 0–11) can make a huge difference.
? 3. Schedule Smarter
- Mix in a few “winnable” non-conference games against decent opponents.
- For example, play teams like High Point, UNC Asheville, or Eastern Kentucky.
- Use the NET rankings when scheduling. Wins against teams in the 100–200 range are valuable.
? 4. Improve NET and KenPom Metrics
- The selection committee uses advanced stats like NET, KenPom, and Sagarin.
- Stay competitive in losses. A 70–58 loss at Kansas looks better than a 102–48 blowout.
- Keep defensive and offensive efficiency balanced. Teams with decent metrics, even in low-major leagues, get favorable seeding boosts.
? 5. Avoid Bad Losses
- Losing to non-D1 teams or teams ranked in the 300+ range in NET is deadly.
- One or two “Q4” losses can lock a team into the 16 line regardless of other wins.
? 6. Win an In-Season Tournament or Event
- Tournaments like the HBCU Challenge or neutral-site classics often offer winnable games against other D1 teams.
- Winning these events adds prestige and résumé points.
? Recent Example:
In 2021, Norfolk State:
- Had a winning record in non-conference play
- Finished top 150 in NET
- Won the MEAC regular season and tournament
?? They received a 16-seed, but avoided the First Four.
Had they added just one more strong non-conference win, they could have been a 15-seed.
AI’s analysis seems straight-forward in theory. But it would likely have a hard time arguing with Jones. The Queens, NY native who jokingly proclaimed himself as “Angry By Nature” in Thursday’s press conference is adamant that he feels his program didn’t belong where they were slotted.
“We shouldn’t have played Florida. We should have played you know, somebody else,” Jones said. “I stand by that to the death. So as far as moving the needle to the 15, it should have been moved already. Well, every time it moves, the goalpost is a little further.”
Jones may be right. But until the MEAC (or SWAC) gets better from top to bottom, any HBCU looking to get out of no. 16 territory will need to kill it in non-conference and be nearly flawless against conference foes.